投资最重要的事 – The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor by Howard Marks

本书的核心观点是，对投资来说最重要的事情是抓住长期趋势。市场短期估值千变万化，但在很长一段时间内，企业的盈利能力才是影响股票价格的主因。作者认为，投资者需要做的就是寻找长期盈利能力不错的公司分析比例合理的股票，然后定期增加投资，不会被短期市场波动所左右。

投资是一门科学，更是一门艺术，而投资艺术和其他艺术一样，要想卓越出众，既要多用脑，又要多用心：一是如何用脑来进行与众不同的第二层次的思考和决策，想法比一般人更深一层;二是如何用心来坚持与众不同的第二层次的思考和行动，行动上比一般人做得更高一层。

本书很好的诠释了价值投资的重要意义。价值投资和成长性投资的本质区别是对当前价格的判断，当前的价格低于本来价值时,才能称之为价格投资的标的。成长值投资主要是预测公司未来的成长空间，创造出更多的价值。风险的管控是至关重要的,只有能很好的管控风险，才能在投资的游戏中保持生存从而不被淘汰。正如马克斯信仰一样“避免致败投资,制胜投资自然会来”。价值的确定是基于准确的分析，之后仔细的分析公司一切状况，才能给出准确的价值。等到足够便宜时，勇于加持并长期持有，等待价值回归。买入的时机永远不要追求完美，因为在投资中追求完美，往往一无所获。

作者提出的投资策略非常简单明确:选择高质量、合理定价的股票;持有一定数量的股票;定期增加投资额度。重点不在于实现高频交易，而在于根据投资理念做出正确的长期决策。为此，作者详细讨论金融市场、中央银行与货币政策的作用。

这本书风格直截了当，观点犀利。作者力陈抓住长期趋势才是投资的关键，而短期交易往往无法超越市场。这本书适合任何富有思考的投资者阅读。它能激发读者对金融市场运作机制的思考，并提供简明直接的投资原则，帮助读者做出正确的投资决策。

“This is that rarity, a useful book.”–Warren Buffett

Howard Marks, the chairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management, is renowned for his insightful assessments of market opportunity and risk. After four decades spent ascending to the top of the investment management profession, he is today sought out by the world’s leading value investors, and his client memos brim with insightful commentary and a time-tested, fundamental philosophy. Now for the first time, all readers can benefit from Marks’s wisdom, concentrated into a single volume that speaks to both the amateur and seasoned investor.

Informed by a lifetime of experience and study, The Most Important Thing explains the keys to successful investment and the pitfalls that can destroy capital or ruin a career. Utilizing passages from his memos to illustrate his ideas, Marks teaches by example, detailing the development of an investment philosophy that fully acknowledges the complexities of investing and the perils of the financial world. Brilliantly applying insight to today’s volatile markets, Marks offers a volume that is part memoir, part creed, with a number of broad takeaways.

Marks expounds on such concepts as “second-level thinking,” the price/value relationship, patient opportunism, and defensive investing. Frankly and honestly assessing his own decisions–and occasional missteps–he provides valuable lessons for critical thinking, risk assessment, and investment strategy. Encouraging investors to be “contrarian,” Marks wisely judges market cycles and achieves returns through aggressive yet measured action. Which element is the most essential? Successful investing requires thoughtful attention to many separate aspects, and each of Marks’s subjects proves to be the most important thing.