被追赶的经济体 – Pursued Economy by Richard C. Koo

经济学家辜朝明在本书中深入探讨了传统经济解决方案在应对大衰退和疫情后经济与社会问题方面的失败。他从资产负债表衰退和全球资本竞争的初始概念入手，解释了大衰退为何持续如此之久，以及为何过去行之有效的良好政策如今却不再奏效。

读者会发现，尽管发达经济体很早就从经济发展的黄金时代进入了被追赶的时代，但这些经济体的政策辩论还在沿用黄金时代的假设。这些假设虽已落伍，但仍是高校经济学课程内容。此种不匹配导致对货币政策的过度依赖和对财政政策的重视不足，从而扭曲了经济，加剧了不平等。

辜朝明曾广泛参与包括美国在内的多个经济体关于经济、银行和贸易相关政策的辩论，书中通过这些真实的例子，阐明了发达经济体在被追赶时代的正确政策组合与黄金时代的政策组合截然不同。书中还解释了央行在对抗通胀方面所面临的挑战，由于10年来发达经济体过度依赖货币政策，世界经济面临前所未有的流动性泛滥。

本书不是简单地假设增长趋势的存在，而是直面经济增长问题，以阐明增长驱动因素和衰退驱动因素之间的对称性。书中还指出，自由贸易与资本自由流动之间存在根本的脱节，这一问题必须加以解决，才能使全球化收益最大化，且代价最小化。

本书以简洁的语言和强烈的紧迫感写就，任何关心全球经济、金融稳定和地缘问题的读者都会找到共鸣。

In Pursued Economy: Understanding and Overcoming the Challenging New Realities for Advanced Economies, celebrated economist and thought leader Richard C. Koo dives deep into the failure of traditional economic solutions to address the economic and social problems of post-Great Recession and post-pandemic economies. Starting with the original concepts of balance sheet recessions and global competition for capital, the author explains why the Great Recession lasted for so long and why well-intentioned policies that worked so well in the past are no longer working today.

Readers will discover that advanced economies moved from what the author calls the “golden era” to the “pursued era” of economic development long ago, but the policy debate in these countries continues to be informed by golden era assumptions that are no longer relevant but are still taught in universities. That mismatch has led to an over-reliance on monetary policy and an under-reliance on fiscal policy that are distorting economies and worsening inequality in a profoundly transformed world.

With many real-world examples from the author’s extensive involvement in the policy debate on economic, banking and trade issues in several countries, including the U.S., the book describes the correct policy mix in the pursued era as distinct from that in the golden era. It also explains the challenges central banks face in fighting inflation after a decade of over-reliance on monetary policy that flooded the world’s economies with unprecedented liquidity.

Instead of simply assuming the existence of “trend growth rates”, this book tackles the issue of economic growth head-on so as to elucidate the symmetry between the drivers of growth and the drivers of recession. It also argues that the fundamental disconnect between free trade and free capital movements must be addressed in order to maximize the gains from globalization while minimizing its costs. Written in simple language and with a great sense of urgency, Pursued Economy should be of interest to anyone who is concerned about the global economy, financial stability and geopolitics.

下载信息