债务危机 – Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio

在2008年金融危机爆发10周年之际，全球一线投资者之一瑞·达利欧公开了他独到的债务危机应对原则。这些原则可以解释债务危机的发生机制，以及妥善应对危机应该遵守的原则。凭借这些原则，桥水在其他机构受困于危机的情况下，得以准确预见事态发展，并安然度过危机。

正如达利欧在其全球畅销书《原则：生活和工作》中解释的那样，他相信，绝大多数事情都是一遍又一遍地反复发生的，所以通过研究事物的规律，人们可以理解事物背后的因果关系，并制定妥善应对的原则。在这本书中，他用这种方式剖析了大规模债务危机，并分享了他的模型，希望以此来降低大规模债务危机发生的概率，以及帮助人们在未来更好地掌控危机。

在这本书中，达利欧通过三部分内容阐述了债务危机及其应对原则：债务大周期模型（解释模型）、3个重要案例（深入考察20世纪20年代德国魏玛共和国、20世纪30年代的美国大萧条和2008年金融危机）、48个历史案例和数据对照分析。

作为成功驾驭危机的极少数人之一，达利欧提供了他的非常规视角。无论你是投资者、决策者，还是仅仅对危机感兴趣的读者，这本书都将帮助你以备受启发的新方式理解经济与市场。

As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. 

In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future. 

The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930’s Great Depression, and the 1920’s inflationary depression of Germany’s Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you’re an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways. 

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